Estes Park's Unseasonable Heat: Insights from Veteran Weather Analyst Greg Berman
The typically cool and breezy town of Estes Park has been grappling with unusual weather patterns this fall, reaching unprecedented high temperatures for this time of year. In a recent conversation with long-time weather analyst Greg Berman, I dug into what might be causing these bizarre conditions and what they mean for our local community. Greg, a seasoned forecaster with over 40 years of experience in the field, didn’t mince words when discussing the gravity of the situation.
“This kind of weather just isn’t supposed to happen here,” Berman said. “It’s wrong in every way.”
The first inkling of this abnormality came last Wednesday when Estes Park recorded its first-ever 80-degree day in October. To put this in perspective, typical October highs hover around the mid-60s, with a gradual decline as the month progresses. Berman pointed out that records were shattered across the region due to a “huge ridge of high pressure” parked over the western United States. This ridge is responsible for pulling in warm air from the desert southwest and has exacerbated the unseasonable heat.
But what’s behind this high-pressure system’s persistence? Berman attributes it to the current position of the Jet Stream.
“During this ‘ultra’ out-of-season warm spell, the Jet Stream has been parked north of the lower 48. It’s been hanging out in Canada,” Berman explained in a follow-up message. “This has allowed the large dome of high pressure to grow enormously. It literally stretches from the Midwest all the way to the Pacific Coast, blocking any weather systems from moving in from the west coast and keeping us basking in these very warm temperatures.”
While Estes Park has always had its share of weather quirks, Berman admitted he’s never seen anything quite like this in his decades of forecasting. He described this year as a sort of “guinea pig” for understanding what could become a new normal if these trends continue. And his outlook for the rest of the fall isn’t promising.
“I don’t see the chance for seasonal temperatures on a continuous basis until around mid-month,” Berman shared. “Even then, it’s a weak break. After the 13th, I see more normalized temperatures taking place over a few days, but then it could warm up again.”
This fluctuating and unpredictable pattern has implications far beyond comfort. Fire danger remains a major concern. This past weekend, the town and the surrounding Rocky Mountain National Park were placed under a Red Flag Warning, highlighting the extreme fire risk posed by low humidity, strong winds, and high temperatures. On Saturday, winds in Estes could gust in excess of 40 mph, with upper elevations seeing gusts above 50 mph.
“Humidity levels are one of the key indicators of fire danger,” Berman noted. “Anything below 15% is worrisome, and we’ve been seeing numbers as low as 12%.”
Given these conditions, it’s clear that residents of Estes Park need to be on high alert. If there’s any silver lining, it’s that Sunday’s outlook suggests a slight reprieve, with temperatures dropping back down to the 60s—closer to what’s normal for this time of year.
But with the fire season now essentially year-round and unpredictable weather becoming more common, one can’t help but wonder if the quiet mountain town of Estes Park is seeing the early signs of climate change affecting even its most sacred seasonal rhythms.
“Look, I’m not an expert on climate change,” Berman told me candidly. “But I do believe the Earth is warming, and that’s influencing what we’re seeing in the atmosphere. It’s changing the way high and low-pressure systems move across the country and altering how storms build and where they impact.”
As we head deeper into the fall and brace for the first snowfall—whenever that may be—it’s clear that Estes Park’s residents are going to need to adapt to the new realities of weather unpredictability. As for Berman, he’s continuing to keep a close eye on the patterns, hoping for a return to more familiar weather but preparing for what could be a long, hot road ahead.